The fall of Assad

A look at some of the issues that western media has skirted on the sudden collapse of the 53-year Assad regime in Syria.

The sudden and complete collapse of the 53-year Assad regime in Syria is undoubtedly one of the defining events of the year. A lot of the Western media coverage has been profoundly biased, not just in the way they’re presenting the protagonists and the events, but in the facts and analysis they’ve been leaving out.

Here are some considerations:

Fall of a dictatorship

Practically nobody reading this article knows what it’s actually like to live an entire lifetime under a dictatorship like the Assads in Syria. Of course there are profound concerns about what comes next for Syria, and the wider Middle East, but it’s completely understandable that a lot of Syrians (both within Syria and in exile) are delighted to see the back of a regime that must have seemed permanent and immovable, having retained power since 1971.

It’s a bit damned much to tell celebrating anti-Assad Syrians that they’re wrong to be celebrating the fall of a 53 year regime, but it’s also profoundly manipulative for members of the Western commentariat to present any discussion, debate, or analysis on the subject beyond "hooray" as being somehow offensive to celebrating Syrians.

This cynical outrage-mongering from the commentariat is clearly just an attempt to shut down anyone who dares ask the awkward questions that their salaries and positions depend on them avoiding.

Yes, acknowledge Syrian perspectives on the revolutionary changes in their country, but be profoundly sceptical of anyone citing Syrians in emotionally manipulative attempts to shut down any kind of detailed analysis.

"Rebels" or "terrorists"?

Western establishment media repeatedly refer to the insurgents as "rebels" with little to no attention paid to the the Islamist extremism of the people who have taken Damascus by force.

Abu Mohammad al-Julani is the leader of the Syrian Opposition, and he’s got a provable track record of Islamist extremism, serving as the Emir of Al-Qaida in Syria between 2012 and 2016.

He now leads Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which is still proscribed as a terrorist organisation by the US and other western governments, and as recently as 2017 the US were offering a $10 million bounty for his capture!

Rehabilitation

It’s interesting to compare the western media rehabilitation of Abu Mohammad al-Julani from a wanted terrorist extremist into a "rebel" with the case of Shamima Begum who was trafficked from Britain to Syria as a 15 year old, where she was married off to a Dutch-born ISIS fighter.

Begum has been constantly derided by the British hack pack, and had her British citizenship permanently revoked for her involvement in Islamist extremism, yet al-Julani gets presented as a "rebel" and "freedom fighter" by the same hacks, despite the proven fact he served as leader of Al-Qaida in Syria!

British media sources have even been reporting that the Starmer government are considering removing HTS from their list of banned terrorist organisations, which just goes to show how the UK establishment order puts power above principle.

Get sex-trafficked into Islamist fanaticism as a 15-year old girl and you’re condemned for life, actually lead Al-Qaida in Syria and commit horrific crimes against humanity, then get reprieved when you take over a country!

Minorities

One of Assad supporters’ main arguments in his favour was always that he protected Syria’s many ethnic minorities, and it’s not difficult to understand the profound concerns of groups like Syrian Christians, Mandeans, Alawis, Druze, Romanis, and Kurds now that the future of the their country seems to rest in the hands of a foreign-backed, heavily-armed, former Al-Qaida Emir.

Colonialism

It’s beyond doubt that the Assad regime depended on outside forces to maintain political power (Russia, Iran, Hezbollah …) but it’s beyond naive to imagine that the various Syrian opposition forces aren’t equally dependent on foreign states.

Turkey has repeatedly denied arming and funding HTS, but even Western media has given the game away somewhat with articles presenting Assad’s defeat as a victory for Turkey over Russia, and coverage detailing how Recep Erdoğan essentially gave the opposition forces "permission" to advance on Assad after he declined Turkey’s recent offer of normalisation.

The idea that Syria is somehow free of colonial interference now that the Russians and Iranians have had their man deposed is palpably absurd.

Follow the money

One of the most glaring omissions in western media coverage is any kind of investigation into the financing of the insurgent forces.

For example. Who paid for all the HTS weapons, salaries, and logistics?

The United States didn’t fund it directly given that HTS is still proscribed as a terrorist organisation, and Turkey denies bankrolling HTS, however the money had to have come from somewhere, and several of the United States despotic allies in the region have long and proven track records of arming and funding Islamist fanatics across the Arab world.

Tracing where all the money and weapons came from is key to properly understanding what’s actually going on, and who the new colonial powers actually are in Syria.

The studious western media disinterest in this subject is absolutely telling.

The Kurds

Across my coverage of the Syrian Civil war since 2014 I’ve consistently believed that the Kurds in Rojava are the only unequivocal "good guys" in the conflict.

The fall of Assad looks like it could be disastrous for them because they now find themselves trapped between the anti-Kurdish hostility of Turkey in the north and the kind of Islamist fanatics they’ve been fighting for years in the south.

It always seems to be the same story for the Kurds. Whatever happens in the region, the Kurds end up getting screwed over.

The Kurds just don’t have the powerful regional and global allies to help them protect their democratic autonomous region of Rojava, so, once again it looks like they’re pretty much on their own.

Russia

There’s no way of seeing the collapse of the Assad regime as anything but a humiliation for Russia. They clearly massively over-extended themselves in Ukraine, and then had to sit by and watch as their guy lost his grip on power in a matter of weeks.

Assad has fled to Moscow with his family, but it’s unclear what value he now holds to the Russians. Presumably he’s managed to siphon a chunk of his extraordinary wealth out of Syria, but aside from any ill-gotten gains he’s managed to take with him to Moscow, he’s got very little to offer his Russian hosts.

It’s being reported that the Russians are already negotiating with the Syrian Opposition forces over the future of Russian military bases in Syria, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Assad become a bargaining chip in these negotiations.

Israel

Israel has been bombing Syria for months, with the absolute and inexplicable impunity they’re given to attack neighbouring countries at will.

Now they’ve taken advantage of the political instability to seize even more Syrian territory in the south, beyond the occupied Golan Heights that they stole in 1967.

It’s interesting to compare the western media outrage at Russia’s attacks on and occupation of Ukrainian territory with the matter-of-fact coverage of Israel’s repeated attacks on Syria (and multiple other sovereign states) and their opportunistic theft of even more Syrian territory after the fall of Assad.

Refugees

There are an estimated five million Syrian refugees who have been displaced to neighbouring countries, Europe, and elsewhere, as well as an estimated six million internally displaced people.

Many Syrians in exile have expressed their intentions to return now that Assad is gone, however many more will have established new lives in their host countries.

What happens next is absolutely key to whether the net flow of immigration is reversed, or is replaced with another surge of refugees fleeing a collapsing state.

The Future

It’s impossible to predict what the future holds given the complexity of the political situation.

To simplify things a lot, there are now five major forces vying for power in post-Assad Syria:

Syrian Interim Government: Turkish-backed. North-west regions.

Salvation Government: HTS-led. Western region including the coast, plus the biggest cities of Damascus and Aleppo.

Syrian Free Army: Backed by the US, UK, and the former colonial power of France. Central region.

Southern Operations Room: Druze and Syrian opposition forces. Southern region.

Rojava: North and east Syria. Pretty much unrecognised internationally. Limited support from Albania and Iraqi Kurdistan.

It’s going to be interesting to see how it all plays out given the multiple different factions and foreign backers vying for influence. The best case scenario is that some kind of democratic interim power-sharing government is formed to work towards a new constitution. The worst case scenario is the horrifying sectarian violence, reprisals, absolute destruction of existing social structures, and widespread lawlessness that occurred after the disastrous regime changes that removed Saddam Hussain in Iraq, and Muammar Gaddafi is Libya.

Conclusions

Given the recent attempts at normalisation of international relations with Syria, nobody could have predicted how quickly the 53-year Assad dynasty would fall. The Syrian people find themselves at a crossroads, and the delight of anti-Assad Syrians is as palpable and understandable as the concerns of Syria’s many minority groups, especially the Kurds.

There aren’t just five major factions vying for power in the new Syria, there are even more numerous foreign powers seeking as much influence as possible: The Russians and Americans with their military bases in Syrian territory; Turkey to the north and Israel to the south that both occupy Syrian territory; Iran; the former colonial power of France; despotic regimes like Saudi Arabia and the UAE …

It’s going to be extremely complicated, and the best anyone can hope for is that the transition is peaceful and democratic, without widespread persecution of minorities, as little human suffering as possible, and that the new Syria becomes a place that Syrians in exile are able to return to if that’s what they want.

When it comes to Western media coverage, it’s important to read between the lines (as always), and consider what they’re deciding not to talk about, as well as the biases in what they are choosing to present.

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